EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 28, 2014

2014-08-28 15:12:35 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 28, 2014
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By breaking down the price level of 1.5050, the bears confirmed a long-term Head and Shoulders bearish reversal pattern.

The bears managed to break down to 1.4950, then 1.4730 corresponding to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

Two bullish spikes were expressed above 1.4950 (50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart) took place. However, the bulls failed to pursue the bullish breakout leading to failure of the bullish breakout attempt.

Since then, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving within the depicted RED channel in an attempt to reach the lower limit located roughly around 1.3880.

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 28, 2014

2014-08-28 15:00:51 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 28, 2014
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One month ago, the bears initiated a bearish trend off price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.

The price levels of 1.7050 – 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6800-1.6850.

However, this price zone of 1.6800 – 1.6820 failed to provide support too, exposing the price level of 1.6665.

Shortly after, price levels around 1.6800-1.6820 offered a valid SELL entry at retesting. Targets were reached initially around 1.6670, 1.6625 and 1.6580.

Price action action should be watched today for a possible BUY entry upon bullish breakout of the current channel depicted on the 4H chart.

Projection targets are roughly located at 1.6660 and 1.6705.

On the other hand, the next bearish destination is located around 1.6460 in case the bears keep developing such bearish momentum. ( Price level of 1.6460 corresponds to a prominent bottom on the daily chart ).

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Top Trade Idea For August 28th, 2014 – AUDUSD

2014-08-28 12:10:02 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Top Trade Idea For August 28th, 2014 – AUDUSD
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For the audusd pair there is still trouble ahead as the path of least resistance seems to be still to the downside and not the upside like recent price action might indicate.

The thing is that the pair is consolidating for the last 5 months around 0.95 and 0.9300 levels, so 200 pips range that tells everything about what summer trading means.

However, things are about to change as we’re getting closer to the Fed ending the tapering and probably with the Fed rising the rates sooner than expected.

The unemployment rates in the two countries, the benchmark for an economy that is moving in the right direction, seem to be divergent. While in Australia we’ve recently seen biggest unemployment in the last 12 years, the US is approaching full employment as the current 6.1% is 14 months ahead of the Fed’s projections.

Only this simple fundamental difference is enough to push the currency lower for the medium/long term, not to mention the technical picture.

After the pair fell out of that contracting triangle that ended around 1.05 area, a clear five waves structure started, shaping up a beautiful impulsive move for wave a of a zigzag. The b wave seems to be completed as well, and now the c wave is mandatory to break the lows in the previous wave a blue, as this is a must in any zigzag.

Hence, our recommendation to stay short for the 0.8880 area is quite a shy target, but nevertheless, one that most likely will come to fruition.

About Mircea Vasiu

capital properties fxMircea Vasiu has an MBA in International Business from an American University, graduating Magna Cum Laudae. He has been a professional trader for the last 8 years and is involved in various educational projects for different financial companies. He also runs a trading signal for the currency markets at www.capitalpropertiesfx.com.

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USD/CAD Signals a Bearish Outlook with Trendline Breakout

2014-08-28 11:43:00 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : USD/CAD Signals a Bearish Outlook with Trendline Breakout
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USD/CAD is turning a bullish breakout signal into a bearish one this week. At the beginning of the week, USD/CAD broke above a resistance at 1.0985 and looked poise to rally toward the next resistance around 1.0150 from April. However, we saw sharp retreat after this brief breakout. As we wind down…

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EUR Demise Supported By Record-Low Peripheral Yields

2014-08-28 10:21:35 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : EUR Demise Supported By Record-Low Peripheral Yields
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This Friday cannot come soon enough for some forex market participants. So far this week, investors have been starved for fundamental data to back their currency positions. Many have had to make do with last week’s central bank rhetoric for direction. The currency positioning play has been agonizingly slow to watch and the current market grind requires more fundamentals to confirm investors’ opinions. By the end of this week, there is sure to be some month-end portfolio rebalancing shenanigans that will put some of the weaker currency positions under pressure. In recent months, it has been predominately a net-buying dollar event by U.S. corporations.

Excluding tomorrow’s German inflation data, there is a plethora of Japanese economic numbers to be released on Friday, and they are likely to influence expectations on whether Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will “top up” the country’s stimulus program. Japanese data is predicted to show that the world’s third-largest economy is once again floundering after hiking the sales consumption tax in April (from +5% to +8%). The market will be focusing on the Japanese core consumer-price index (excluding food and energy). It’s forecast to rise +3.3% on the year in July — or +1.3% excluding the impact of the tax increase. These numbers are well below the BoJ’s +2% inflation target. Last weekend’s rallying cry by Kuroda indicated that Japanese authorities “remain committed to its accommodative stance until the +2% inflation target is met and maintained in a sustainable manner.” Will the BoJ try and inflate progress with more “hot-air” or will it add to its aggressive easing program? 280814gEuropean Consumer Confidence Wanes
European reports again missed expectations, as the region continues to report deterioration in economic data. This morning’s session saw misses in German import prices (-0.4%), and a slight miss in the monthly GfK consumer sentiment survey (8.6 versus 8.9). Even Italian and French consumers’ waning confidence managed to slow European bourses’ two-day equity rally. It’s all about the investor weighing weak European data with the timing of a possible European Central Bank (ECB) introduction of a quantitative easing (QE) program.

Confidence among French manufacturers fell slightly this month (96 versus 100) as they become less optimistic about the future. Of note, this morning’s report was conducted before President François Hollande dissolved his government. Nevertheless, there is little global confidence in Europe’s second-largest economy as it pursues an austerity-measured approach to fixing what ails.

Italy is faring no better as consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month, sinking to its lowest level since April (101.9 versus 104.4 — no World Cup performance correlation). It’s not a surprise to see that the drop was led by a deterioration in general sentiment and “lower expectations to the economic situation.” Already this month, Italy, Europe’s third-largest economy, has slipped back into a technical recession. Both of these surveys indicated that there are ongoing concerns over falling prices — currently and for the future — highlighting the ECB’s dreaded “deflation trap.” Little wonder the market is betting that the ECB is edging closer to QE. 280814hEuro Periphery Bonds in Demand
Despite geopolitical threats (Russia and Ukraine talks fail to produce a breakthrough); the risk of implementing QE is supporting eurozone bond prices. German 10-year Bunds (+0.93%) are again trading close to record-low yields. Even overseas buying is lifting peripheral debt, with yields in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal all sinking to fresh record lows this morning.

As noted throughout the week, long-dated Bonos (Portugal debt paper) are faring best, where 30-year spreads are about -6bps tighter to Bunds, while 10-year product lags just behind at -5bps. Italian bonds will continue to lag ahead of tomorrow’s supply. Before a bond auction, it’s the trader’s intent to try to back-up the benchmark interest rate curve to allow some room to take down supply at a more favorable rate (higher yields equals lower prices). 280814iGerman Minister Disagrees with Draghi’s Fiscal View
The trend remains the market’s friend. The EUR’s new trend lower is keeping the long-term bearish outlook intact. Any market fear will be about the currency being oversold. The EUR popped earlier this morning, threatening to take out the psychological €1.3200 handle with conviction, after Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaebule said that ECB President Mario Draghi had been “over-interpreted” when he suggested that fiscal policy could play a greater role in promoting growth. The single unit’s gains have been aggressively capped, somewhat indicating the strength of the bearish nature of the currency. The EUR currently resides just ahead of its yearly lows, and somewhat handcuffed to a plethora of option barriers and month-end requests.

In the short term, the selling of EUR on the crosses will determine the currency’s direction. Month-end speculation supposedly rests with USD sellers, and it’s worth noting that today is spot-value month-end — historically of late, this has attracted a decent U.S. bid for dollars. Some price moves will not be explained from here to week’s end. Expect month-end demand to be held accountable.280814jAbout Dean Popplewell

PopplewellDirector of Currency Analysis and Research, Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

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Intraday Outlooks For DXY, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/CHF – SEB

2014-08-28 07:44:57 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Intraday Outlooks For DXY, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/CHF – SEB
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The following are the intraday outlooks for the USD Index, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

USD INDEX: Starting to correct the stretch. The greenback has during the past week been “stretched” (outside both the 233d as well as the 55…

Risks of Trading Forex :
Like any trading or investment vehicle, there is a high level of financial risk in trading Forex. In particular, the increased amount of leverage offered in the Forex market means that a trader can lose all, or a large portion, of his trading capital if the market makes a significant move against the trader’s position.:

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 27, 2014

2014-08-27 12:47:01 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 27, 2014
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Since the USD/CAD pair failed to show enough bullish momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel, which managed to push towards the price zone between 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) where a prominent congestion zone was established.

Bullish rejection was expressed at retesting the lower limit of the bearish channel around 1.0630 (It’s the origin of the previous bullish impulse initiated in December 2013 as well). This enabled the bulls to achieve a bullish breakout off the depicted channel.

The USD/CAD pair has a strong resistance zone located between 1.0950 and 1.1020 (Fibonacci Levels 50% and 61.8% of the most recent bearish swing).

As we mentioned before, bearish rejection should be anticipated after such a long bullish rally that originated off 1.0650 and 1.0710.

Previously, around the price level of 1.0950, a Shooting-Star daily candlestick was expressed. This was repeated yesterday. Thus, enhancing the short-term bearish direction.

A valid SELL position was suggested at retesting which took place this week. Initial bearish target is located around 1.0825.

Conservative traders should wait for higher entry levels to be retested especially around 1.0930. Daily closure below price zone of 1.0870-1.0850 confirms a long-term double-top pattern with its projection target located at 1.0770.

On the other hand, persistence of daily fixation above 1.0950 (50% Fibonacci level) enables the bulls to shoot towards 1.1020 and 1.1050 initially (very low probability in the meanwhile ).

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 27, 2014

2014-08-27 12:33:32 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 27, 2014
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One month ago, the bears initiated a bearish trend off price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.

The price levels of 1.7050 – 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6920.

However, this price zone of