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Safe-haven yen and Swiss franc gain on Ukraine worries

2014-08-28 13:13:37 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Safe-haven yen and Swiss franc gain on Ukraine worries
Short News Excerpts:

The yen and Swiss franc gained on Thursday, while the euro fell, as concerns about a serious escalation in tensions between Ukraine and Russia rattled investors and drove them to seek safe-haven currencies.

The euro hit a 21-month low against the Swiss franc of 1.2052 francs per euro on trading p…

Risks of Trading Forex :
There are also specific steps that a trader can take to minimize the risks involved in Forex trading, particularly involving safe ways to use the margin. Calculating the Risk-Reward Ratio is one of the most effective risk management tools in Forex trading. But be aware that Forex trading involves a substantial risk of losses.:

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EUR Demise Supported By Record-Low Peripheral Yields

2014-08-28 10:21:35 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : EUR Demise Supported By Record-Low Peripheral Yields
CashBack Forex News:

marketpulse

This Friday cannot come soon enough for some forex market participants. So far this week, investors have been starved for fundamental data to back their currency positions. Many have had to make do with last week’s central bank rhetoric for direction. The currency positioning play has been agonizingly slow to watch and the current market grind requires more fundamentals to confirm investors’ opinions. By the end of this week, there is sure to be some month-end portfolio rebalancing shenanigans that will put some of the weaker currency positions under pressure. In recent months, it has been predominately a net-buying dollar event by U.S. corporations.

Excluding tomorrow’s German inflation data, there is a plethora of Japanese economic numbers to be released on Friday, and they are likely to influence expectations on whether Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will “top up” the country’s stimulus program. Japanese data is predicted to show that the world’s third-largest economy is once again floundering after hiking the sales consumption tax in April (from +5% to +8%). The market will be focusing on the Japanese core consumer-price index (excluding food and energy). It’s forecast to rise +3.3% on the year in July — or +1.3% excluding the impact of the tax increase. These numbers are well below the BoJ’s +2% inflation target. Last weekend’s rallying cry by Kuroda indicated that Japanese authorities “remain committed to its accommodative stance until the +2% inflation target is met and maintained in a sustainable manner.” Will the BoJ try and inflate progress with more “hot-air” or will it add to its aggressive easing program? 280814gEuropean Consumer Confidence Wanes
European reports again missed expectations, as the region continues to report deterioration in economic data. This morning’s session saw misses in German import prices (-0.4%), and a slight miss in the monthly GfK consumer sentiment survey (8.6 versus 8.9). Even Italian and French consumers’ waning confidence managed to slow European bourses’ two-day equity rally. It’s all about the investor weighing weak European data with the timing of a possible European Central Bank (ECB) introduction of a quantitative easing (QE) program.

Confidence among French manufacturers fell slightly this month (96 versus 100) as they become less optimistic about the future. Of note, this morning’s report was conducted before President François Hollande dissolved his government. Nevertheless, there is little global confidence in Europe’s second-largest economy as it pursues an austerity-measured approach to fixing what ails.

Italy is faring no better as consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month, sinking to its lowest level since April (101.9 versus 104.4 — no World Cup performance correlation). It’s not a surprise to see that the drop was led by a deterioration in general sentiment and “lower expectations to the economic situation.” Already this month, Italy, Europe’s third-largest economy, has slipped back into a technical recession. Both of these surveys indicated that there are ongoing concerns over falling prices — currently and for the future — highlighting the ECB’s dreaded “deflation trap.” Little wonder the market is betting that the ECB is edging closer to QE. 280814hEuro Periphery Bonds in Demand
Despite geopolitical threats (Russia and Ukraine talks fail to produce a breakthrough); the risk of implementing QE is supporting eurozone bond prices. German 10-year Bunds (+0.93%) are again trading close to record-low yields. Even overseas buying is lifting peripheral debt, with yields in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal all sinking to fresh record lows this morning.

As noted throughout the week, long-dated Bonos (Portugal debt paper) are faring best, where 30-year spreads are about -6bps tighter to Bunds, while 10-year product lags just behind at -5bps. Italian bonds will continue to lag ahead of tomorrow’s supply. Before a bond auction, it’s the trader’s intent to try to back-up the benchmark interest rate curve to allow some room to take down supply at a more favorable rate (higher yields equals lower prices). 280814iGerman Minister Disagrees with Draghi’s Fiscal View
The trend remains the market’s friend. The EUR’s new trend lower is keeping the long-term bearish outlook intact. Any market fear will be about the currency being oversold. The EUR popped earlier this morning, threatening to take out the psychological €1.3200 handle with conviction, after Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaebule said that ECB President Mario Draghi had been “over-interpreted” when he suggested that fiscal policy could play a greater role in promoting growth. The single unit’s gains have been aggressively capped, somewhat indicating the strength of the bearish nature of the currency. The EUR currently resides just ahead of its yearly lows, and somewhat handcuffed to a plethora of option barriers and month-end requests.

In the short term, the selling of EUR on the crosses will determine the currency’s direction. Month-end speculation supposedly rests with USD sellers, and it’s worth noting that today is spot-value month-end — historically of late, this has attracted a decent U.S. bid for dollars. Some price moves will not be explained from here to week’s end. Expect month-end demand to be held accountable.280814jAbout Dean Popplewell

PopplewellDirector of Currency Analysis and Research, Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

The post EUR Demise Supported By Record-Low Peripheral Yields appeared first on ForexNews.com.

Risks of Trading Forex :
Like any trading or investment vehicle, there is a high level of financial risk in trading Forex. In particular, the increased amount of leverage offered in the Forex market means that a trader can lose all, or a large portion, of his trading capital if the market makes a significant move against the trader’s position.:

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Intraday Outlooks For DXY, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/CHF – SEB

2014-08-28 07:44:57 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Intraday Outlooks For DXY, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/CHF – SEB
Business News:

The following are the intraday outlooks for the USD Index, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

USD INDEX: Starting to correct the stretch. The greenback has during the past week been “stretched” (outside both the 233d as well as the 55…

Risks of Trading Forex :
Like any trading or investment vehicle, there is a high level of financial risk in trading Forex. In particular, the increased amount of leverage offered in the Forex market means that a trader can lose all, or a large portion, of his trading capital if the market makes a significant move against the trader’s position.:

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German 10-year bund yield falls below 0.90%

2014-08-27 13:54:39 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : German 10-year bund yield falls below 0.90%
Business News:

German 10-year yields are down 4 bps to a record low 0.898%.

Only 40 basis points to go to match Japanese 10s.

Risks of Trading Forex :
There are also specific steps that a trader can take to minimize the risks involved in Forex trading, particularly involving safe ways to use the margin. Calculating the Risk-Reward Ratio is one of the most effective risk management tools in Forex trading. But be aware that Forex trading involves a substantial risk of losses.:

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Fonterra Deepens NZ-Chinese Links With Baby Formula Partnership

2014-08-27 12:00:39 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Fonterra Deepens NZ-Chinese Links With Baby Formula Partnership
Cash Back News:

Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. (FCG), the world’s biggest dairy exporter, said it will pay NZ$615 million ($515 million) for a stake in a Chinese infant formula maker as it seeks to tap the nation’s lucrative baby milk market.

The New Zealand company will buy a stake of as much as 20 percent in…

Risks of Trading Forex :
Like any trading or investment vehicle, there is a high level of financial risk in trading Forex. In particular, the increased amount of leverage offered in the Forex market means that a trader can lose all, or a large portion, of his trading capital if the market makes a significant move against the trader’s position.

Successful traders are aware of this risk, and carefully plan their trades in order to minimize the risks to their trading capital. Even with implementing risk management tools, the risks of trading Forex remain substantial.

There are also specific steps that a trader can take to minimize the risks involved in Forex trading, particularly involving safe ways to use the margin. Calculating the Risk-Reward Ratio is one of the most effective risk management tools in Forex trading. But be aware that Forex trading involves a substantial risk of losses.
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Use this Sterling and Euro bounce as another chance to sell

2014-08-27 10:51:07 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Use this Sterling and Euro bounce as another chance to sell
Cabafx.com News:

On yet another strong day for the dollar, Wall Street posted record gains after a jump in the durable goods data and multi-year highs in consumer confidence suggested continued strength in the US economy. The S&P 500 has closed above 2000 for the first time as equity markets continue to push higher….

Risks of Trading Forex :
Successful traders are aware of this risk, and carefully plan their trades in order to minimize the risks to their trading capital. Even with implementing risk management tools, the risks of trading Forex remain substantial.:

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http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=501478

EUR Shorts Hanging Tough For Now

2014-08-27 10:22:03 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : EUR Shorts Hanging Tough For Now
Business News:

marketpulse

With the U.K. markets back online today after a holiday long weekend, playing catch-up is the order of the day. European credit markets are trading firmer this morning despite the non-rapturous applause in Asia that saw the Nikkei, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index close in the red after some quick profit-taking on the back of a strong rally over the past few weeks.

When it comes to forex trading these days everyone should know the rules by now: the central banks dictate market direction. Last week’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will be regarded as a watershed moment for the eurozone’s survival. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s “neutral or less dovish” tone, it was “super” Mario Draghi’s assertion that the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to act again that has quickened the pulse of capital markets. Specifically, it was the ECB chief’s comment that plans for initiating asset-backed securities buying are moving forward quickly — potentially shifting the mix of the ECB’s austerity-driven plan to quantitative easing (QE). Draghi’s sense of conviction has incited many to call for the introduction of QE at the ECB’s next meet in September, and it’s the main reason for the ongoing current credit tightening after the indices were more or less closed in-line with the U.K.’s timeout. 270814gBanker Chatter Reverberates
Smooth-talking central bankers have managed to reverse the hefty U.S. August correction in the markets, especially equities. Stock records continue to fall (S&P’s mythical 2,000 print, the Dow knocking on record highs), while U.S. 10′s rally to +2.37%. In Europe, the moves have been more pronounced. Draghi’s QE battle cry will naturally favor equities and bonds, and hopefully in the longer term manage to keep the EUR (€1.3199) on its knees in aiding regional growth prospects. It’s natural that a dovish shift in tone by any central bank official probably justifies some market optimism; nevertheless, it’s also important not to get too far ahead, especially in reference to the ECB’s QE idea. Structurally, the ECB is nowhere near ready for it to be introduced, and such plans are usually heavily data dependent. Before Europe can achieve its utopia, various positional squeezes will occur. 270814hPositional Plays Influenced by Month-End
Draghi’s dovish comments on inflation, weak German Ifo data, and eurozone yields trading at record lows (10-year Bunds at +0.94%) will favor the EUR and maintain its allure as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the market’s weaker EUR short positions will be squeezed and eventually forced to exit from time-to-time; the single unit’s demise is not exactly linear. It’s been reported that influential reserve names continue to want to fade any EUR/USD upticks (€1.3225-35). The recent month-end dynamics (spot day this Friday) has seen U.S. corporations being better USD buyers to close out the month. The mighty buck seems to be consolidating some of its post-Jackson Hole pow-wow gains ahead of the release of U.S. Durable Goods Orders this morning. Even the techies note that the dollar may have drifted into ‘overbought’ territory — a possible reason for the lack of movement. Mind you, the appearance of a plethora of option barriers usually handcuffs a market until they come off.

The significant rate divergence rhetoric, coupled with U.S.-German two-year spreads climbing (+2bp to a new +54.5bp high) has encouraged the growth of EUR short positions on the international monetary market. Intraday sellers continue to be camped on the topside with €1.3245 providing strong resistance while €1.3150 barriers remain the focus for the next support. Some real-money buyers remain attracted to this area. However, EUR bears remain very much in control of the broader tone. 270814iFollow the Yield Interest
It’s not a surprise to see U.K. gilts open sharply higher — they need to play catch-up after yesterday’s summer bank holiday. The whiff of implementing QE by the ECB will favor U.K. debt products and the pound (both a yield grab). Despite data and events remaining thin on the ground, the market will be looking for any evidence to favor owning sterling over euros. Sterling’s bounce from Monday’s five-month low (£1.6542) is threatening to force a break above the psychological £1.66 handle. A momentum breakthrough at this level certainly opens the way for further gains to £1.6635-50. Nevertheless, without sustainable harder evidence, Monday’s low will remain vulnerable.

Light buying from international and domestic interest continues to power the bid in the eurozone’s peripheral debt markets. Supporting the QE story is the significant outperformance of Spanish bonds over Italian bonds. The Bund-Italian spread has tightened -4bp to Bunds, which suggests that intraday dealers are bidding the market up as they grab the most liquid of instruments. Spanish bonds are doing even better: the 10-year benchmark to Bunds are -5bp tighter, probably reflecting investors’ greater comfort level for Spanish debt, and the fact that Italy does have midweek supply to contend with. Investors are factoring in ECB QE pricing. Now, all they need is the EUR to comply.270814jAbout Dean Popplewell

PopplewellDirector of Currency Analysis and Research, Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

The post EUR Shorts Hanging Tough For Now appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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Gold – Sellers Placing Great Pressure on Support at $1275

2014-08-27 10:07:41 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Gold – Sellers Placing Great Pressure on Support at $1275
Cabafx.com News:

marketpulse

Gold for Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Over the last week now Gold has been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD

2014-08-27 07:26:35 – Best Cash Back Forex Rebates : Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD
Short News Excerpts:

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Targeting 1.31221/04 next. There ain’t no rest for the wicked and there ain’t no rest for the euro…A short term 261.8% Fibo projection ref is cu…

Risks of Trading Forex :
Like any trading or investment vehicle, there is a high level of financial risk in trading Forex. In particular, the increased amount of leverage offered in the Forex market means that a trader can lose all, or a large portion, of his trading capital if the market makes a significant move against the trader’s position.:

Link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=501479